FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
aimclub#98 in the world · win 13:5series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 13:5
ABT#124 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientaimclub ban
30%50%
aimclub · 6 mapsedge ABT +20%ABT · 2 maps
Anubisaimclub ban
60%50%
aimclub · 6 mapsedge aimclub +10%ABT · 2 maps
MirageABT ban
58%50%
aimclub · 8 mapsedge aimclub +8%ABT · 0 maps
Dust2ABT ban
33%50%
aimclub · 5 mapsedge ABT +17%ABT · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
71%60%
aimclub · 3 mapsedge aimclub +11%ABT · 1 map
CacheABT ban
57%50%
aimclub · 3 mapsedge aimclub +7%ABT · 0 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
50%33%
aimclub · 0 mapsedge aimclub +17%ABT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banaimclub remove Nuke
2. BanABT remove Cache
3. Banaimclub remove Ancient
4. BanABT remove Dust2
5. Banaimclub remove Anubis
6. BanABT remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (71% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
aimclub 63%ABT 37%
The model gave 63% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 55%
Series resultaimclub 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1