FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
ABT#124 in the world · win 13:11series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 13:11
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%60%
ABT · 2 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 11 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
33%31%
ABT · 2 mapsnearly even +2%Falcons Force · 9 maps
CacheABT ban
50%69%
ABT · 0 mapsedge Falcons Force +19%Falcons Force · 9 maps
MirageABT ban
50%46%
ABT · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Falcons Force · 9 maps
AnubisABT ban
43%67%
ABT · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +24%Falcons Force · 5 maps
AncientFalcons Force ban
50%57%
ABT · 2 mapsedge Falcons Force +7%Falcons Force · 3 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
50%33%
ABT · 0 mapsedge ABT +17%Falcons Force · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanABT remove Cache
2. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
3. BanABT remove Mirage
4. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
5. BanABT remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
ABT 27%Falcons Force 73%
The model gave 73% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by ABT.
Model check result
Model favoriteABT · 56%
Series resultABT 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1