FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs predictionFFlameHardloss 1:13
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:13
NT#92 in the world · win 13:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheNT ban
50%43%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +7%NT · 3 maps
Dust2FlameHard ban
50%43%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +7%NT · 3 maps
MirageFlameHard ban
50%43%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +7%NT · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%40%
FlameHard · 1 mapnearly even +0%NT · 1 map
AnubisNT ban
50%33%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +17%NT · 2 maps
InfernoFlameHard ban
50%60%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge NT +10%NT · 1 map
NukeNT ban
50%40%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +10%NT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlameHard remove Dust2
2. BanNT remove Nuke
3. BanFlameHard remove Mirage
4. BanNT remove Anubis
5. BanFlameHard remove Inferno
6. BanNT remove Cache
DeciderAncient (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
FlameHard 57%NT 43%
The model gave 57% on FlameHard — the map was taken by NT.
Model check result
Model favoriteNT · 66%
Series resultNT 1:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1