FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 13:16series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 13:16
SAW#61 in the world · win 16:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
36%56%
Famalicão · 7 mapsedge SAW +20%SAW · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%75%
Famalicão · 4 mapsedge SAW +25%SAW · 8 maps
CacheSAW ban
43%67%
Famalicão · 3 mapsedge SAW +24%SAW · 5 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
33%56%
Famalicão · 2 mapsedge SAW +23%SAW · 5 maps
Dust2SAW ban
63%43%
Famalicão · 4 mapsedge Famalicão +20%SAW · 3 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
50%70%
Famalicão · 0 mapsedge SAW +20%SAW · 6 maps
MirageSAW ban
60%60%
Famalicão · 1 mapnearly even +0%SAW · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
4. BanSAW remove Dust2
5. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
6. BanSAW remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:16
Famalicão 27%SAW 73%
The model gave 73% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 71%
Series resultSAW 13:16
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1