FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs predictionFFlameHardloss 23:25
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 23:25
SINQU#217 in the world · win 25:23The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSINQU ban
50%33%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +17%SINQU · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%56%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge SINQU +6%SINQU · 5 maps
AncientSINQU ban
40%29%
FlameHard · 1 mapedge FlameHard +11%SINQU · 3 maps
AnubisFlameHard ban
50%33%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge FlameHard +17%SINQU · 2 maps
Dust2FlameHard ban
40%40%
FlameHard · 1 mapnearly even +0%SINQU · 1 map
InfernoSINQU ban
50%50%
FlameHard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU · 2 maps
DefaultFlameHard ban
50%60%
FlameHard · 0 mapsedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlameHard remove Anubis
2. BanSINQU remove Inferno
3. BanFlameHard remove Dust2
4. BanSINQU remove Ancient
5. BanFlameHard remove Default
6. BanSINQU remove Cache
DeciderNuke (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct23:25
FlameHard 44%SINQU 56%
The model gave 56% on SINQU — the map was taken by SINQU.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 52%
Series resultSINQU 23:25
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1