FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 13:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 13:1
FFlameHardloss 1:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFlameHard ban
75%40%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +35%FlameHard · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
70%40%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +30%FlameHard · 1 map
AncientSAW ban
56%40%
SAW · 5 mapsedge SAW +16%FlameHard · 1 map
AnubisFlameHard ban
50%50%
SAW · 6 mapsnearly even +0%FlameHard · 0 maps
CacheFlameHard ban
70%50%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +20%FlameHard · 0 maps
Dust2SAW ban
43%40%
SAW · 3 mapsnearly even +3%FlameHard · 1 map
MirageSAW ban
60%50%
SAW · 1 mapedge SAW +10%FlameHard · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanFlameHard remove Cache
3. BanSAW remove Dust2
4. BanFlameHard remove Anubis
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanFlameHard remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (70% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
SAW 82%FlameHard 18%
The model gave 82% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 79%
Series resultSAW 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1