FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NT#88 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNT pick
40%43%
PURE · 6 mapsnearly even -3%NT · 3 maps
Dust2PURE ban
57%56%
PURE · 3 mapsnearly even +1%NT · 5 maps
CachePURE pick
57%50%
PURE · 3 mapsedge PURE +7%NT · 4 maps
InfernoNT ban
63%60%
PURE · 4 mapsnearly even +3%NT · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
50%40%
PURE · 2 mapsedge PURE +10%NT · 1 map
AnubisPURE ban
50%29%
PURE · 0 mapsedge PURE +21%NT · 3 maps
NukeNT ban
50%40%
PURE · 2 mapsedge PURE +10%NT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Anubis
2. BanNT remove Nuke
3. PickPURE take Cache
4. PickNT take Mirage
5. BanNT remove Inferno
6. BanPURE remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed21:25
PURE 63%NT 37%
The model gave 63% on PURE — the map was taken by NT.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
PURE 44%NT 56%
The model gave 56% on NT — the map was taken by NT.
Model check result
Model favoriteNT · 63%
Series resultNT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2