FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SAW#61 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SAW ban
29%43%
INFINITE · 13 mapsedge SAW +14%SAW · 3 maps
MirageSAW ban
53%60%
INFINITE · 15 mapsedge SAW +7%SAW · 1 map
InfernoSAW pick
40%75%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge SAW +35%SAW · 8 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
46%50%
INFINITE · 9 mapsnearly even -4%SAW · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
45%70%
INFINITE · 7 mapsedge SAW +25%SAW · 6 maps
CacheINFINITE ban
50%73%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge SAW +23%SAW · 7 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%55%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge SAW +15%SAW · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Dust2
6. BanINFINITE remove Cache
DeciderNuke (45% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:8
INFINITE 25%SAW 75%
The model gave 75% on SAW — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
INFINITE 49%SAW 51%
The model gave 51% on SAW — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 63%
Series resultINFINITE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2