FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLazer Cats pick
44%67%
SAW · 5 mapsedge Lazer Cats +23%Lazer Cats · 8 maps
InfernoSAW pick
77%63%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +14%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
55%78%
SAW · 7 mapsedge Lazer Cats +23%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
CacheLazer Cats ban
69%50%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +19%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
67%43%
SAW · 5 mapsedge SAW +24%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
Dust2SAW ban
38%29%
SAW · 4 mapsedge SAW +9%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%50%
SAW · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanLazer Cats remove Cache
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. PickLazer Cats take Ancient
5. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
6. BanSAW remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (55% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
SAW 69%Lazer Cats 31%
The model gave 69% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
SAW 26%Lazer Cats 74%
The model gave 74% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 70%
Series resultSAW 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2