FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NT#88 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
69%44%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +25%NT · 5 maps
AnubisNT ban
55%25%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +30%NT · 4 maps
Dust2NT pick
38%64%
SAW · 4 mapsedge NT +26%NT · 7 maps
InfernoSAW pick
79%60%
SAW · 10 mapsedge SAW +19%NT · 1 map
AncientSAW ban
55%50%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +5%NT · 2 maps
NukeNT ban
70%43%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +27%NT · 3 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%55%
SAW · 0 mapsedge NT +5%NT · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanNT remove Nuke
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. PickNT take Dust2
5. BanNT remove Anubis
6. BanSAW remove Ancient
DeciderCache (69% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
SAW 23%NT 77%
The model gave 77% on NT — the map was taken by NT.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
SAW 78%NT 22%
The model gave 78% on SAW — the map was taken by NT.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 77%
Series resultNT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2