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European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Project 91#160 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientProject 91 pick
50%60%
Project 91 · 6 mapsedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 1 map
AnubisEntropy pick
57%43%
Project 91 · 3 mapsedge Project 91 +14%Entropy · 3 maps
MirageEntropy ban
50%33%
Project 91 · 4 mapsedge Project 91 +17%Entropy · 2 maps
NukeEntropy ban
38%50%
Project 91 · 4 mapsedge Entropy +12%Entropy · 0 maps
InfernoProject 91 ban
33%40%
Project 91 · 2 mapsedge Entropy +7%Entropy · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
33%50%
Project 91 · 2 mapsedge Entropy +17%Entropy · 0 maps
Dust2Project 91 ban
40%50%
Project 91 · 1 mapedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProject 91 remove Dust2
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickProject 91 take Ancient
4. PickEntropy take Anubis
5. BanEntropy remove Mirage
6. BanProject 91 remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Project 91 64%Entropy 36%
The model gave 64% on Project 91 — the map was taken by Project 91.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Project 91 43%Entropy 57%
The model gave 57% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
Project 91 64%Entropy 36%
The model gave 64% on Project 91 — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 67%
Series resultEntropy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3