Elisa Open Finland Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE pick
67%33%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge ENCE +34%cirahvi · 2 maps
InfernoENCE ban
33%67%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge cirahvi +34%cirahvi · 2 maps
Nukecirahvi pick
67%67%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%cirahvi · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%33%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%cirahvi · 2 maps
AncientENCE ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%cirahvi · 0 maps
Dust2cirahvi ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%cirahvi · 0 maps
Anubiscirahvi ban
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%cirahvi · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Inferno
2. Bancirahvi remove Dust2
3. PickENCE take Mirage
4. Pickcirahvi take Nuke
5. Bancirahvi remove Anubis
6. BanENCE remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
ENCE 47%cirahvi 53%
The model gave 53% on cirahvi — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
ENCE 82%cirahvi 18%
The model gave 82% on ENCE — the map was taken by cirahvi.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
ENCE 50%cirahvi 50%
The model gave 50% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 57%
Series resultENCE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3