NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MANA#86 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MANA pick
50%67%
MANA · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +17%INOX Division · 11 maps
NukeMANA ban
50%63%
MANA · 2 mapsedge INOX Division +13%INOX Division · 12 maps
AncientMANA ban
20%60%
MANA · 6 mapsedge INOX Division +40%INOX Division · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
MANA · 2 mapsedge INOX Division +7%INOX Division · 10 maps
OverpassINOX Division pick
40%62%
MANA · 1 mapedge INOX Division +22%INOX Division · 9 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
54%50%
MANA · 9 mapsnearly even +4%INOX Division · 0 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
50%43%
MANA · 4 mapsedge MANA +7%INOX Division · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMANA remove Nuke
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickMANA take Dust2
4. PickINOX Division take Overpass
5. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
6. BanMANA remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
MANA 35%INOX Division 65%
The model gave 65% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
MANA 36%INOX Division 64%
The model gave 64% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 79%
Series resultINOX Division 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2