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Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Revise#160 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FORZE Reload#70 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheRevise ban
40%50%
Revise · 1 mapedge FORZE Reload +10%FORZE Reload · 2 maps
AncientFORZE Reload pick
50%50%
Revise · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
MirageRevise pick
60%40%
Revise · 1 mapedge Revise +20%FORZE Reload · 1 map
NukeRevise ban
50%67%
Revise · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +17%FORZE Reload · 2 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
50%60%
Revise · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +10%FORZE Reload · 1 map
DefaultFORZE Reload ban
60%50%
Revise · 1 mapedge Revise +10%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%50%
Revise · 1 mapedge Revise +10%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRevise remove Nuke
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Default
3. PickRevise take Mirage
4. PickFORZE Reload take Ancient
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
6. BanRevise remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
Revise 37%FORZE Reload 63%
The model gave 63% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Revise 72%FORZE Reload 28%
The model gave 72% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Revise 60%FORZE Reload 40%
The model gave 60% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 59%
Series resultRevise 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3