BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoGentle Mates pick
62%67%
Gentle Mates · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +5%Nemesis · 5 maps
NukeNemesis pick
42%67%
Gentle Mates · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +25%Nemesis · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
73%56%
Gentle Mates · 7 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%Nemesis · 5 maps
MirageGentle Mates ban
55%50%
Gentle Mates · 7 mapsedge Gentle Mates +5%Nemesis · 4 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
57%40%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%Nemesis · 1 map
AnubisNemesis ban
57%50%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Nemesis · 0 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%57%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Nemesis · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Overpass
6. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (73% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Gentle Mates 24%Nemesis 76%
The model gave 76% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Gentle Mates 47%Nemesis 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 67%
Series resultNemesis 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2