1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
64%53%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +11%Rune Eaters · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%50%
HOTU · 4 mapsedge HOTU +13%Rune Eaters · 12 maps
MirageRune Eaters pick
50%50%
HOTU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 14 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
67%29%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +38%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%56%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +6%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
DefaultHOTU ban
50%43%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge HOTU +7%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
40%33%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +7%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
6. BanHOTU remove Default
DeciderAncient (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
HOTU 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on HOTU — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
HOTU 85%Rune Eaters 15%
The model gave 85% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
HOTU 63%Rune Eaters 37%
The model gave 63% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 86%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3