1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
79%57%
Omega · 10 mapsedge Omega +22%Rune Eaters · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%47%
Omega · 8 mapsedge Omega +20%Rune Eaters · 11 maps
MirageRune Eaters pick
50%47%
Omega · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Rune Eaters · 13 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
44%29%
Omega · 5 mapsedge Omega +15%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
25%33%
Omega · 4 mapsedge Rune Eaters +8%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
InfernoOmega ban
50%56%
Omega · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +6%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
DefaultOmega ban
40%43%
Omega · 1 mapnearly even -3%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Inferno
2. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
3. PickOmega take Dust2
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
6. BanOmega remove Default
DeciderAncient (67% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Omega 71%Rune Eaters 29%
The model gave 71% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Omega 72%Rune Eaters 28%
The model gave 72% on Omega — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Omega 53%Rune Eaters 47%
The model gave 53% on Omega — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 54%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3