?
arrow_backBack to match
FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG pick
33%57%
LAG · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +24%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
75%50%
LAG · 4 mapsedge LAG +25%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert pick
33%60%
LAG · 2 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
67%60%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +7%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
MirageSportsBetExpert ban
57%50%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +7%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
50%67%
LAG · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
OverpassLAG ban
50%40%
LAG · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Inferno
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Ancient
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Mirage
6. BanLAG remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
LAG 77%SportsBetExpert 23%
The model gave 77% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
LAG 31%SportsBetExpert 69%
The model gave 69% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
LAG 27%SportsBetExpert 73%
The model gave 73% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 60%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3