FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
F5#208 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFRZ pick
50%57%
F5 · 4 mapsedge FRZ +7%FRZ · 3 maps
InfernoFRZ ban
50%40%
F5 · 4 mapsedge F5 +10%FRZ · 1 map
MirageF5 pick
67%40%
F5 · 2 mapsedge F5 +27%FRZ · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
40%40%
F5 · 1 mapnearly even +0%FRZ · 1 map
NukeF5 ban
50%50%
F5 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FRZ · 0 maps
OverpassFRZ ban
50%50%
F5 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FRZ · 0 maps
Dust2F5 ban
50%60%
F5 · 0 mapsedge FRZ +10%FRZ · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanF5 remove Dust2
2. BanFRZ remove Inferno
3. PickF5 take Mirage
4. PickFRZ take Ancient
5. BanFRZ remove Overpass
6. BanF5 remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
F5 47%FRZ 53%
The model gave 53% on FRZ — the map was taken by FRZ.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
F5 53%FRZ 47%
The model gave 53% on F5 — the map was taken by F5.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
F5 43%FRZ 57%
The model gave 57% on FRZ — the map was taken by F5.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 55%
Series resultF5 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3