FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Reign Above#324 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Reign Above · 2 maps
MirageMarsborne pick
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Reign Above · 2 maps
AncientReign Above ban
67%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Reign Above · 2 maps
AnubisReign Above pick
50%67%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Reign Above +17%Reign Above · 2 maps
Dust2Reign Above ban
40%40%
Marsborne · 1 mapnearly even +0%Reign Above · 1 map
DefaultMarsborne ban
50%60%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Reign Above +10%Reign Above · 1 map
NukeMarsborne ban
50%60%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Reign Above +10%Reign Above · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanReign Above remove Ancient
3. PickMarsborne take Mirage
4. PickReign Above take Anubis
5. BanReign Above remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Default
DeciderInferno (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Marsborne 31%Reign Above 69%
The model gave 69% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Marsborne 69%Reign Above 31%
The model gave 69% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 74%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2