NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
61%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +11%ex-RUSTEC · 18 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%44%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-RUSTEC · 14 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
38%56%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +18%ex-RUSTEC · 14 maps
Mirageex-RUSTEC pick
45%73%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +28%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
33%45%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +12%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
50%45%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +5%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Overpassex-Zero Tenacity ban
40%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Overpass
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Mirage
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
ex-Zero Tenacity 58%ex-RUSTEC 42%
The model gave 58% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
ex-Zero Tenacity 22%ex-RUSTEC 78%
The model gave 78% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 58%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2