Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNIO pick
40%40%
NIO · 1 mapnearly even +0%Kreazion · 1 map
Dust2NIO ban
50%40%
NIO · 0 mapsedge NIO +10%Kreazion · 1 map
MirageKreazion ban
40%50%
NIO · 1 mapedge Kreazion +10%Kreazion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNIO remove Dust2
2. BanKreazion remove Mirage
3. PickNIO take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
NIO 53%Kreazion 47%
The model gave 53% on NIO — the map was taken by Kreazion.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
NIO 37%Kreazion 63%
The model gave 63% on Kreazion — the map was taken by NIO.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
NIO 60%Kreazion 40%
The model gave 60% on NIO — the map was taken by Kreazion.
Model check result
Model favoriteNIO · 50%
Series resultKreazion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3