NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
57%70%
Honvéd · 26 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Bushido Wildcats · 23 maps
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
50%71%
Honvéd · 22 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +21%Bushido Wildcats · 13 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
56%42%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +14%Bushido Wildcats · 15 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
50%40%
Honvéd · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%58%
Honvéd · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +8%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
36%56%
Honvéd · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +20%Bushido Wildcats · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
70%71%
Honvéd · 6 mapsnearly even -1%Bushido Wildcats · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
6. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (70% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
Honvéd 53%Bushido Wildcats 47%
The model gave 53% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Honvéd 33%Bushido Wildcats 67%
The model gave 67% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Honvéd 29%Bushido Wildcats 71%
The model gave 71% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 59%
Series resultHonvéd 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3