ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 13:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 13:1
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 1:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
65%75%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 19 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
MirageNinjas in Pyjamas ban
47%83%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +36%SportsBetExpert · 14 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%68%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +8%SportsBetExpert · 15 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
57%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +7%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
38%42%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsnearly even -4%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
50%58%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +8%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
4. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Mirage
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (60% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:1
Ninjas in Pyjamas 47%SportsBetExpert 53%
The model gave 53% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 68%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1