ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 5:13series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 5:13
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 13:5The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
71%63%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +8%SINNERS · 20 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
67%61%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%SINNERS · 19 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
50%61%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge SINNERS +11%SINNERS · 14 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
58%40%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +18%SINNERS · 11 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
50%45%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%SINNERS · 7 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
60%42%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +18%SINNERS · 15 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
54%50%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even +4%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
4. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
6. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (71% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
100 Thieves 56%SINNERS 44%
The model gave 56% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 57%
Series resultSINNERS 5:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1