Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LPH#150 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Jam ban
60%60%
Jam · 1 mapnearly even +0%LPH · 6 maps
AncientJam pick
71%67%
Jam · 3 mapsnearly even +4%LPH · 2 maps
AnubisLPH ban
67%60%
Jam · 2 mapsedge Jam +7%LPH · 1 map
InfernoJam ban
50%57%
Jam · 0 mapsedge LPH +7%LPH · 3 maps
NukeLPH pick
60%50%
Jam · 1 mapedge Jam +10%LPH · 2 maps
MirageLPH ban
50%50%
Jam · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJam remove Inferno
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. PickJam take Ancient
4. PickLPH take Nuke
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. BanJam remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Jam 58%LPH 42%
The model gave 58% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Jam 57%LPH 43%
The model gave 57% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 59%
Series resultJam 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2