1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Sashi#91 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSashi pick
33%60%
Acend · 5 mapsedge Sashi +27%Sashi · 16 maps
InfernoAcend pick
60%54%
Acend · 11 mapsedge Acend +6%Sashi · 9 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
42%40%
Acend · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Sashi · 11 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%52%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Sashi · 17 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%46%
Acend · 6 mapsedge Acend +14%Sashi · 9 maps
AnubisAcend ban
38%67%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Sashi +29%Sashi · 5 maps
MirageSashi ban
44%40%
Acend · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Sashi · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanSashi remove Mirage
3. PickAcend take Inferno
4. PickSashi take Cache
5. BanSashi remove Dust2
6. BanAcend remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (60% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Acend 50%Sashi 50%
The model gave 50% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 60%
Series resultAcend 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1