1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Metizport#52 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport pick
48%55%
K27 · 23 mapsedge Metizport +7%Metizport · 18 maps
MirageK27 pick
68%63%
K27 · 21 mapedge K27 +5%Metizport · 12 maps
Cachepossible decider
55%50%
K27 · 25 mapsedge K27 +5%Metizport · 6 maps
AncientK27 ban
43%62%
K27 · 19 mapsedge Metizport +19%Metizport · 9 maps
AnubisMetizport ban
69%58%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +11%Metizport · 8 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%61%
K27 · 0 mapsedge Metizport +11%Metizport · 14 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
40%50%
K27 · 11 mapsedge Metizport +10%Metizport · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanMetizport remove Dust2
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickMetizport take Nuke
5. BanMetizport remove Anubis
6. BanK27 remove Ancient
DeciderCache (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
K27 41%Metizport 59%
The model gave 59% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
K27 59%Metizport 41%
The model gave 59% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
K27 55%Metizport 45%
The model gave 55% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 54%
Series resultK27 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3