1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINNERS pick
55%63%
Nemesis · 16 mapsedge SINNERS +8%SINNERS · 20 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%65%
Nemesis · 20 mapsedge SINNERS +7%SINNERS · 13 maps
MirageNemesis ban
43%63%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge SINNERS +20%SINNERS · 20 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
64%45%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +19%SINNERS · 16 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
67%40%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nemesis +27%SINNERS · 11 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
67%42%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +25%SINNERS · 8 maps
DefaultNemesis ban
29%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge SINNERS +21%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Mirage
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickSINNERS take Dust2
5. BanSINNERS remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Default
DeciderAncient (58% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Nemesis 39%SINNERS 61%
The model gave 61% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Cacheprediction correct13:2
Nemesis 71%SINNERS 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
Nemesis 43%SINNERS 57%
The model gave 57% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 58%
Series resultSINNERS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3