1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GamerLegion ban
40%65%
GamerLegion · 6 mapsedge SINNERS +25%SINNERS · 22 maps
MirageSINNERS pick
27%60%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsedge SINNERS +33%SINNERS · 21 map
CacheGamerLegion pick
75%43%
GamerLegion · 8 mapsedge GamerLegion +32%SINNERS · 17 maps
AncientGamerLegion ban
50%67%
GamerLegion · 10 mapsedge SINNERS +17%SINNERS · 14 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
55%38%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%SINNERS · 9 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
60%40%
GamerLegion · 1 mapedge GamerLegion +20%SINNERS · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
GamerLegion · 1 mapedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickGamerLegion take Cache
4. PickSINNERS take Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
6. BanGamerLegion remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
GamerLegion 68%SINNERS 32%
The model gave 68% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
GamerLegion 31%SINNERS 69%
The model gave 69% on SINNERS — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 80%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2