1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
K27#44 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachefnatic pick
76%57%
fnatic · 17 mapsedge fnatic +19%K27 · 26 maps
AncientK27 ban
71%43%
fnatic · 17 mapsedge fnatic +28%K27 · 19 maps
MirageK27 pick
36%69%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge K27 +33%K27 · 22 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%46%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +4%K27 · 24 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
50%40%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +10%K27 · 11 maps
Anubispossible decider
73%69%
fnatic · 11 mapsnearly even +4%K27 · 9 maps
InfernoK27 ban
60%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +10%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Ancient
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (73% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
fnatic 79%K27 21%
The model gave 79% on fnatic — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
fnatic 18%K27 82%
The model gave 82% on K27 — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction correct19:17
fnatic 71%K27 29%
The model gave 71% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 57%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3