FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoabsolute cinema ban
33%50%
LAG · 5 mapsedge absolute cinema +17%absolute cinema · 0 maps
Mirageabsolute cinema pick
57%40%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +17%absolute cinema · 1 map
Ancientabsolute cinema ban
33%40%
LAG · 2 mapsedge absolute cinema +7%absolute cinema · 1 map
NukeLAG pick
67%50%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +17%absolute cinema · 0 maps
OverpassLAG ban
50%60%
LAG · 0 mapsedge absolute cinema +10%absolute cinema · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Overpass
2. Banabsolute cinema remove Inferno
3. PickLAG take Nuke
4. Pickabsolute cinema take Mirage
5. Banabsolute cinema remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
LAG 47%absolute cinema 53%
The model gave 53% on absolute cinema — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
LAG 69%absolute cinema 31%
The model gave 69% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 68%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2