BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
55%63%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Nemesis · 4 maps
NukeNemesis pick
50%67%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Nemesis · 5 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
56%63%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Nemesis · 4 maps
MirageNemesis ban
56%43%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%Nemesis · 3 maps
Dust2100 Thieves ban
67%57%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%Nemesis · 3 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
60%40%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +20%Nemesis · 1 map
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Nemesis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanNemesis remove Overpass
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Mirage
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (55% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
100 Thieves 46%Nemesis 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
100 Thieves 39%Nemesis 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemesis — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
100 Thieves 63%Nemesis 37%
The model gave 63% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 50%
Series resultNemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3