FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
F5#208 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
makeSHIFTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoF5 pick
50%40%
F5 · 4 mapsedge F5 +10%makeSHIFT · 1 map
AncientmakeSHIFT ban
43%50%
F5 · 3 mapsedge makeSHIFT +7%makeSHIFT · 0 maps
MirageF5 ban
60%40%
F5 · 1 mapedge F5 +20%makeSHIFT · 1 map
NukeF5 ban
50%50%
F5 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%makeSHIFT · 0 maps
OverpassmakeSHIFT ban
50%50%
F5 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%makeSHIFT · 0 maps
AnubismakeSHIFT pick
40%50%
F5 · 1 mapedge makeSHIFT +10%makeSHIFT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanF5 remove Nuke
2. BanmakeSHIFT remove Overpass
3. PickF5 take Inferno
4. PickmakeSHIFT take Anubis
5. BanmakeSHIFT remove Ancient
6. BanF5 remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
F5 67%makeSHIFT 33%
The model gave 67% on F5 — the map was taken by F5.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
F5 46%makeSHIFT 54%
The model gave 54% on makeSHIFT — the map was taken by F5.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 58%
Series resultF5 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2