kleverr A Lyga Season 3 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Lithuanian Wolveswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Galaxyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
Not enough maps played over 3 months to build a veto prediction.
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Lithuanian Wolves 47%Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Galaxy — the map was taken by Galaxy.
Anubisprediction correct22:20
Lithuanian Wolves 53%Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on Lithuanian Wolves — the map was taken by Lithuanian Wolves.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Lithuanian Wolves 50%Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Lithuanian Wolves — the map was taken by Lithuanian Wolves.
Model check result
Model favoriteLithuanian Wolves · 50%
Series resultLithuanian Wolves 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3