Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OG#203 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassTDK pick
73%71%
TDK · 7 mapsnearly even +2%OG · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
69%50%
TDK · 9 mapsedge TDK +19%OG · 0 maps
AncientOG ban
55%50%
TDK · 7 mapsedge TDK +5%OG · 0 maps
MirageTDK ban
50%60%
TDK · 6 mapsedge OG +10%OG · 1 map
InfernoOG pick
33%60%
TDK · 2 mapsedge OG +27%OG · 1 map
NukeTDK ban
40%50%
TDK · 1 mapedge OG +10%OG · 2 maps
AnubisOG ban
50%50%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%OG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanOG remove Ancient
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickOG take Inferno
5. BanOG remove Anubis
6. BanTDK remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (69% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
TDK 72%OG 28%
The model gave 72% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
TDK 23%OG 77%
The model gave 77% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
TDK 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 54%
Series resultTDK 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3