ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Young TigeRES#156 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
57%53%
Young TigeRES · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Fire Flux · 15 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
57%50%
Young TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Young TigeRES +7%Fire Flux · 12 maps
AnubisYoung TigeRES ban
40%65%
Young TigeRES · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +25%Fire Flux · 13 maps
CacheFire Flux pick
33%57%
Young TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +24%Fire Flux · 10 maps
NukeYoung TigeRES pick
63%55%
Young TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Young TigeRES +8%Fire Flux · 7 maps
InfernoYoung TigeRES ban
50%64%
Young TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Fire Flux · 10 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
50%25%
Young TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Young TigeRES +25%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYoung TigeRES remove Anubis
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickYoung TigeRES take Nuke
4. PickFire Flux take Cache
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanYoung TigeRES remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (57% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Young TigeRES 61%Fire Flux 39%
The model gave 61% on Young TigeRES — the map was taken by Young TigeRES.
Cacheprediction correct17:19
Young TigeRES 25%Fire Flux 75%
The model gave 75% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction missed17:19
Young TigeRES 55%Fire Flux 45%
The model gave 55% on Young TigeRES — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 58%
Series resultFire Flux 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3