BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%46%
FOKUS · 0 mapsnearly even +4%fnatic · 9 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
57%40%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +17%fnatic · 6 maps
Infernofnatic pick
67%73%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge fnatic +6%fnatic · 7 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
60%58%
FOKUS · 1 mapnearly even +2%fnatic · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%63%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge fnatic +13%fnatic · 4 maps
Nukefnatic ban
43%50%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge fnatic +7%fnatic · 0 maps
OverpassFOKUS pick
67%40%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +27%fnatic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickFOKUS take Overpass
4. Pickfnatic take Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Dust2
6. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
FOKUS 40%fnatic 60%
The model gave 60% on fnatic — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
FOKUS 40%fnatic 60%
The model gave 60% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
FOKUS 67%fnatic 33%
The model gave 67% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 52%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3