Elisa Open Finland Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageKUUSAMO pick
40%40%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapnearly even +0%cirahvi · 1 map
Ancientcirahvi ban
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge cirahvi +10%cirahvi · 0 maps
OverpassKUUSAMO ban
50%40%
KUUSAMO · 0 mapsedge KUUSAMO +10%cirahvi · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Overpass
2. Bancirahvi remove Ancient
3. PickKUUSAMO take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed3:13
KUUSAMO 53%cirahvi 47%
The model gave 53% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by cirahvi.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
KUUSAMO 47%cirahvi 53%
The model gave 53% on cirahvi — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
KUUSAMO 50%cirahvi 50%
The model gave 50% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by cirahvi.
Model check result
Model favoritecirahvi · 52%
Series resultcirahvi 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3