1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
DEPO#120 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega#148 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
43%77%
DEPO · 3 mapsedge Omega +34%Omega · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%64%
DEPO · 4 mapsnearly even -1%Omega · 7 maps
MirageDEPO ban
50%50%
DEPO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Omega · 6 maps
OverpassDEPO pick
75%25%
DEPO · 4 mapsedge DEPO +50%Omega · 4 maps
NukeDEPO ban
50%44%
DEPO · 0 mapsedge DEPO +6%Omega · 5 maps
AnubisOmega ban
60%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge DEPO +10%Omega · 0 maps
DefaultOmega ban
50%40%
DEPO · 0 mapsedge DEPO +10%Omega · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDEPO remove Nuke
2. BanOmega remove Anubis
3. PickDEPO take Overpass
4. PickOmega take Dust2
5. BanOmega remove Default
6. BanDEPO remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (63% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
DEPO 17%Omega 83%
The model gave 83% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
DEPO 52%Omega 48%
The model gave 52% on DEPO — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 61%
Series resultOmega 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2