Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FaZe#14 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNinjas in Pyjamas ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge FaZe +6%FaZe · 6 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge FaZe +7%FaZe · 6 maps
MirageFaZe pick
43%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsedge FaZe +24%FaZe · 5 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
75%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +12%FaZe · 4 maps
AnubisFaZe ban
50%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +7%FaZe · 3 maps
OverpassFaZe ban
50%33%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%FaZe · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanFaZe remove Overpass
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickFaZe take Mirage
5. BanFaZe remove Anubis
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Ninjas in Pyjamas 42%FaZe 58%
The model gave 58% on FaZe — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Ninjas in Pyjamas 67%FaZe 33%
The model gave 67% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 67%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2