BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGentle Mates pick
70%70%
Gentle Mates · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
MirageGentle Mates ban
44%56%
Gentle Mates · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +12%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%44%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +13%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%55%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
55%50%
Gentle Mates · 7 mapsedge Gentle Mates +5%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
NukeEternal Fire pick
40%60%
Gentle Mates · 6 mapsedge Eternal Fire +20%Eternal Fire · 1 map
OverpassEternal Fire ban
57%50%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
3. PickGentle Mates take Ancient
4. PickEternal Fire take Nuke
5. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
6. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (57% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Gentle Mates 36%Eternal Fire 64%
The model gave 64% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Gentle Mates 33%Eternal Fire 67%
The model gave 67% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction correct34:32
Gentle Mates 50%Eternal Fire 50%
The model gave 50% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 76%
Series resultGentle Mates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3