1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DEPO#120 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
56%50%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +6%DEPO · 2 maps
AncientDEPO pick
57%71%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge DEPO +14%DEPO · 3 maps
NukeDEPO ban
63%50%
HOTU · 4 mapsedge HOTU +13%DEPO · 0 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
50%71%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge DEPO +21%DEPO · 3 maps
AnubisHOTU ban
60%60%
HOTU · 1 mapnearly even +0%DEPO · 1 map
MirageDEPO ban
50%50%
HOTU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DEPO · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanDEPO remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickDEPO take Ancient
5. BanDEPO remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
HOTU 53%DEPO 47%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Overpassprediction correct10:13
HOTU 31%DEPO 69%
The model gave 69% on DEPO — the map was taken by DEPO.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
HOTU 35%DEPO 65%
The model gave 65% on DEPO — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 71%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3