Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FaZe#14 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFaZe pick
63%64%
FaZe · 4 mapsnearly even -1%Sharks · 7 maps
AncientSharks pick
44%63%
FaZe · 5 mapsedge Sharks +19%Sharks · 4 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
40%50%
FaZe · 6 mapsedge Sharks +10%Sharks · 0 maps
MirageSharks ban
63%40%
FaZe · 4 mapsedge FaZe +23%Sharks · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
43%60%
FaZe · 3 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 1 map
OverpassFaZe ban
33%33%
FaZe · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sharks · 2 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
50%67%
FaZe · 0 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFaZe remove Inferno
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. PickFaZe take Nuke
4. PickSharks take Ancient
5. BanSharks remove Mirage
6. BanFaZe remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
FaZe 30%Sharks 70%
The model gave 70% on Sharks — the map was taken by FaZe.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
FaZe 74%Sharks 26%
The model gave 74% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 74%
Series resultFaZe 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2