NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Young Ninjas#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Phantom pick
38%67%
Young Ninjas · 9 mapsedge Phantom +29%Phantom · 8 maps
MirageYoung Ninjas ban
29%46%
Young Ninjas · 3 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 9 maps
AncientPhantom ban
60%44%
Young Ninjas · 6 mapsedge Young Ninjas +16%Phantom · 5 maps
NukeYoung Ninjas ban
63%55%
Young Ninjas · 4 mapsedge Young Ninjas +8%Phantom · 7 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
44%50%
Young Ninjas · 5 mapsedge Phantom +6%Phantom · 0 maps
OverpassYoung Ninjas pick
67%43%
Young Ninjas · 2 mapsedge Young Ninjas +24%Phantom · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
Young Ninjas · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYoung Ninjas remove Mirage
2. BanPhantom remove Anubis
3. PickYoung Ninjas take Overpass
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Ancient
6. BanYoung Ninjas remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed12:16
Young Ninjas 75%Phantom 25%
The model gave 75% on Young Ninjas — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
Young Ninjas 55%Phantom 45%
The model gave 55% on Young Ninjas — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Young Ninjas 32%Phantom 68%
The model gave 68% on Phantom — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 61%
Series resultYoung Ninjas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3