CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lavked pick
58%44%
Lavked · 20 mapsedge Lavked +14%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
38%57%
Lavked · 20 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +19%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
35%33%
Lavked · 16 mapsnearly even +2%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
InfernoLavked ban
36%46%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%50%
Lavked · 16 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT pick
54%50%
Lavked · 9 mapsnearly even +4%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%55%
Lavked · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +15%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickLavked take Dust2
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Anubis
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (38% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Lavked 66%HYPERSPIRIT 34%
The model gave 66% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction missed28:25
Lavked 49%HYPERSPIRIT 51%
The model gave 51% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 55%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2