Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#130 in the world · win 13:5series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 13:5
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSINQU ban
61%50%
G2 Ares · 29 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%SINQU · 2 maps
MirageSINQU ban
42%50%
G2 Ares · 27 mapsedge SINQU +8%SINQU · 0 maps
Dust2G2 Ares ban
37%40%
G2 Ares · 23 mapsnearly even -3%SINQU · 1 map
AncientSINQU ban
52%25%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge G2 Ares +27%SINQU · 4 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
44%27%
G2 Ares · 14 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%SINQU · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
45%33%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%SINQU · 2 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%55%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge SINQU +5%SINQU · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanSINQU remove Mirage
3. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
4. BanSINQU remove Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
6. BanSINQU remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (45% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
G2 Ares 77%SINQU 23%
The model gave 77% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 62%
Series resultG2 Ares 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1