Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
58%47%
OG · 8 mapsedge OG +11%Falcons Force · 11 maps
InfernoOG ban
27%60%
OG · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +33%Falcons Force · 11 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
50%31%
OG · 8 mapsedge OG +19%Falcons Force · 9 maps
CacheOG ban
33%71%
OG · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +38%Falcons Force · 10 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
75%33%
OG · 12 mapsedge OG +42%Falcons Force · 2 maps
AncientFalcons Force ban
60%57%
OG · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AnubisOG ban
50%55%
OG · 0 mapsedge Falcons Force +5%Falcons Force · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Anubis
2. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
3. BanOG remove Cache
4. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
5. BanOG remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons Force remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (58% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
OG 20%Falcons Force 80%
The model gave 80% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Series resultFalcons Force 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1