Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · win 13:8series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 13:8
Orion Wanderersloss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePURE ban
36%50%
PURE · 7 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +14%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%40%
PURE · 5 mapsedge PURE +16%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Dust2Orion Wanderers ban
57%33%
PURE · 3 mapsedge PURE +24%Orion Wanderers · 2 maps
CacheOrion Wanderers ban
57%40%
PURE · 3 mapsedge PURE +17%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
InfernoOrion Wanderers ban
63%50%
PURE · 4 mapsedge PURE +13%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
AncientPURE ban
50%40%
PURE · 2 mapsedge PURE +10%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
AnubisPURE ban
50%40%
PURE · 0 mapsedge PURE +10%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Anubis
2. BanOrion Wanderers remove Inferno
3. BanPURE remove Mirage
4. BanOrion Wanderers remove Dust2
5. BanPURE remove Ancient
6. BanOrion Wanderers remove Cache
DeciderNuke (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
PURE 60%Orion Wanderers 40%
The model gave 60% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoritePURE · 66%
Series resultPURE 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1