Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 13:5series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 13:5
Orion Wanderersloss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOrion Wanderers ban
63%50%
Falcons Force · 12 mapsedge Falcons Force +13%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
CacheOrion Wanderers ban
71%40%
Falcons Force · 10 mapsedge Falcons Force +31%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
MirageFalcons Force ban
47%50%
Falcons Force · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
31%40%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +9%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
AnubisOrion Wanderers ban
55%40%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +15%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
57%33%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +24%Orion Wanderers · 2 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%33%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Orion Wanderers · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanOrion Wanderers remove Inferno
3. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
4. BanOrion Wanderers remove Cache
5. BanFalcons Force remove Mirage
6. BanOrion Wanderers remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (57% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Falcons Force 47%Orion Wanderers 53%
The model gave 53% on Orion Wanderers — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 62%
Series resultFalcons Force 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1